The impact of climate change on the distribution of Sphyrna lewini in the tropical eastern Pacific

The impact of climate change on the distribution of Sphyrna lewini in the tropical eastern Pacific

Aura María Rodriguez-Burgos | Francisco Javier Briceño-Zuluaga | Julián Leonardo Ávila Jiménez | Alex Hearn | César Peñaherrera-Palma | Eduardo Espinoza | James Ketchum | Peter Klimley | Todd Steiner | Randall Arauz | Elpis Joan

Marine Environmental Research 180, 105696 (2022)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105696

Abstract

Variability and climate change due to anthropic influence have brought about alterations to marine ecosystems, that, in turn, have affected the physiology and metabolism of ectotherm species, such as the common hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini). However, the impact that climate variability may have on this species’ distribution, particularly in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Corridor, which is considered an area with great marine biodiversity, is unknown. The purpose of this research was to evaluate the effect of derivate impact of climate change on the oceanographic distribution of the hammerhead shark (Sphyrna lewini) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Marine Corridor, contrasting the present and future scenarios for 2050. The methodology used was an ecological niche model based on the KUENM R package software that uses the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The modelling was made for the year 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. A total of 952 models were made, out of which only one met the statistical parameters established as optimal, for future scenarios. The environmental suitability for S.lewini shows that this species would migrate to the south in the Chilean Pacific, associated with a possible warming that the equatorial zone will have and the possible cooling that the subtropical zone of the South Pacific will have by 2050, the product of changes in oceanographic dynamics.

Keywords: KUENM, Ecological niche modelling, Upwelling, Hammerhead shark, Climate change